(4/8/01) Current events in Zimbabwe are giving us an unprecedented opportunity to measure and judge the effect of white settlement and colonization in Africa. Zim is now the world's largest test tube. The country is undergoing a massive nation wide experiment on the effects of white settlement in Africa. The effect of this settlement are varied, but I want to focus on the economic effects. The settlement of Zim by whites and their movement into the economy took decades. The elimination of whites from the economy and their likely elimination from the country will be over with in a few years. Mugabe started this process a year ago and I expect him to be finished before the next planting season in November. This is an incredibly rapid migration by historical standards. Most migrations occur so slowly that it is difficult to separate the impact of the migration from other historical changes. This will not be the case with the elimination of whites from Zim's economy. The impact will be clear and quantifiable.

Within the intellectual hegemony spawned by the Sixties there is no doubt as to the legacy of white settlement and colonization. Within this hegemony white rule is seen as the cause of Africa's poverty and ignorance. This dominant school of thought has no room for even asking the question 'what was the impact?' because asking the question implies one is not convinced that the issue has been decided. Unfortunately, post-Independence Africa has not had the economic success predicted by standard ideas on the impact of Europe on Africa. This has been explained by stating that the current problems are the result of the colonial past. One problem with this is that if colonization caused economic harm than as time proceeds the effect of this harm will diminish. However, if colonization was an economic benefit than as time proceeds the effect of the benefit will diminish. According to the statistics below it appears that the latter has occurred.

As the effect of colonization has faded so has economic performance. Because we are talking about a lengthy period of time during which so many other changes are occurring these figures are not as telling as to the economic effect of Europe on Africa as the figures we will be receiving from Zimbabwe over the next few years. The situation there will be much clearer than the larger picture of post-Independence Africa. This situation will be as close to a scientific experiment on the effect of white settlement as we will ever get. It is also more than that, it is a referendum on the white presence in Africa with history as the voter.

There are only 70,000 whites left in Zim but their economic importance is disproportionate due to history. When the country was first settled by whites in 1890 the plan was that all land and natural resources would be defined as the property of the British South Africa Company. The investors in said company would supply the money to build the railways and roads and other infrastructure needed to develop the economy. The company would also sell land and mineral rights in what came to be called Rhodesia to white immigrants. In the beginning land would be simply given away to white immigrants in order to jump start the country's development and much land was acquired in this way. The Company would recoup the costs of building the infrastructure by taxing the residents. When the Company had made a profit and the country was developed with a useful infrastructure and a successful economy Rhodesia was to become first a British Colony and then an independent and free Dominion such as Canada.

This plan as conceived by Cecil Rhodes was to treat blacks and whites equally under the law. Blacks were to be able to purchase land from the British South Africa Company on equal terms with whites. The right to vote was to be open to anyone who was literate and paid above a certain amount in taxes. Rhodes and the others involved knew that blacks had no money and could not read. They knew there would initially be no black voters or landowners. Rhodes and the society he came from believed there was such a thing as civilization and they believed blacks did not have it. It was their belief that they were going to bring civilization to the blacks of Rhodesia and that within decades and perhaps even over hundreds of years the black residents would come to be so well educated and civilized that they would become the majority of the voters and democratically take command of the country.

What the plan was and how the plan was implemented are two different things. The tax requirements were continually raised so that almost all voters were white. The laws allowing blacks to own land were first ignored and then abolished. In 1930 the Land Apportionment Act was passed in what had become a self-governing Colony making the previous unofficial policy of race qualification for land ownership official. Most of the best farmland could only be owned by whites. Some small amount of second rate farmland was set aside for private black ownership and the majority of the second rate farmland was to be communally owned by the native tribes. Land not good enough to farm was set aside as wildlife preserve. The people running Rhodesia felt it was best for all if the important resources were in the hands of whites until such time that blacks became civilized. The best farmland remains in the hands of whites today in what is now called Zimbabwe and the effect of taking this important resource away from them is going to become clear over the next several years.

One obvious effect of white settlement was an enormous increase in population. The official statistics above are considered to undercount blacks in the early years and the usual estimate for the native population at the time of white arrival in 1890 is 750,000. Zim currently has 12 million people. An other effect was a huge increase in cattle. The cattle population in 1901 was unnaturally low due to a recent Rinderpest epidemic which had killed 90% of the stock. The 12,000 cattle owned by whites in 1901 were almost all cattle previously stolen from blacks and this did not represent cattle importation. Most cattle imported were for the purpose of crossbreeding with local cattle to give them more meat.

In 1914 the whites instituted mandatory cattle dipping for all races. This involves having the cow walk down a ramp into pool containing whatever chemicals are going to repel parasites and disease. It is likely that the mandatory dipping was the main cause of rapid increase in the cattle population. Evidence of this is that there were no more massive Rinderpest epidemics. Most cattle dipping stations were owned by whites and charged a fee. During the 1970's independence leaders urged blacks to boycott white owned dipping stations and 250,000 cattle died. It will be interesting to see if Zim maintains adequate cattle dipping standards after the white expulsion.

The early Rhodesians did a great deal to foster agricultural success besides mandatory cattle dipping. When is was realized that tobacco was Rhodesia's greatest economic hope experts were sent to America, Turkey and Greece to study tobacco growing methods. In 1913 corn yields were 400 lbs. an acre. By 1964 they were 2,400 lbs. An acre. Some farms in the high rain areas currently produce 8,000 pounds of corn an acre. Rhodesian agriculture was universally recognized for its expertise and success in the world market. Average yield's in corn and wheat were second highest in the world despite a less than ideal growing environment. Almost all wheat had been imported until the 1960's when Rhodesian experts developed a strain which could thrive in the local environment. How successful Zim will be without the descendants of the Rhodesians is a question we will not have to wait very long to answer.

The real deal is not historical performance, but how the Zim economy performs in the next few years as compared to the last few years. Statistics breaking down what percentage of what crop is produced on black owned land and what percentage is produced on white owned land are irrelevant as the whites own better land. It is the same with per acre figures. It is better to judge Zim's total performance with whites to its total performance without whites. From 1991 to 1998 Zim averaged $719 million a year in agricultural exports. This includes the very poor harvests of 1992-1993 which were harmed by the worst drought in 30 years. Almost all of this output was from white owned farms. In the years to come we will all see if this output continues.

Zim's black farmers have a very small impact on exports. Tobacco accounts for 70% of all agricultural exports and almost all of this is produced on white farms. If a black takeover of white commercial farms ends agricultural export this is going to have a profound effect on the entire economy. Although agricultural exports are only 10% of the total GNP they account for 1/3 of all exports. This produces foreign exchange(forex) which is the lifeblood of the entire economy. In the same way that a person who makes $30,000 a year cannot acquire more than $30,000 a year in goods and services, no country can buy more from the rest of the world than it sells to the rest of the world. If Zim's forex is reduced by 1/3, it will have to buy 1/3 less from the rest of the world. This will affect every single person in the country. It will not be a positive effect.

Zim must spend $480 million a year in forex on oil. Without this oil the trains, buses, airplanes and cars will not run. The $480 million a year in forex spent on oil must be paid out of the roughly $2 billion a year in forex Zim usually gains from exports. Currently Zim does not have the usual amount of forex because it does not have the usual amount of exports. This is the result of the effort to take back the white farms and of the reduction in tourism following the violence. The country is running out of gasoline and this touches the life of every citizen.

In order to find forex to pay for oil the government once decided to raid the forex accounts of its companies and citizens. Foreign currencies in corporate and personal banking accounts were to be seized with 25% of this is going to buy oil and the rest going to fund Zim's embassies abroad. The order was rescinded one week later after massive protest from the business community, but the threat of similar currency seizures remains. The lack of forex is a constant problem for manufacturing which not only relies on foreign oil for energy and transport, but also on foreign machinery and supplies. Much of Zim's manufacturing industry involves the mere assembly of parts manufactured elsewhere. Some industries import 95% of their inputs. This cannot continue without forex to buy these parts in the first place. One survey by the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries claims Zim manufacturing is operating at only 25% capacity due to lack of oil and forex. Since lack of oil is caused by lack of forex, the entire depression in Zim manufacturing is due to this shortage. The most important cause of this shortage is the failure of this year's tobacco crop in the white farms.

Mining is also suffering from a lack of forex. While mining and manufacturing produce forex they also consume it. The white owned commercial farms are unique in that they produce 1/3 of Zim's exports without requiring much in the way of imports. Mining and manufacturing require much in the way of imports and are being crippled by Zim's current forex shortage. If this forex shortage becomes permanent these industries will be reduced to a fraction of their current output. Falcon Gold Zimbabwe Limited, one of the largest gold miners in the country recently suspended all mining in response to profits declining by 95% in one year. Lack of oil and forex were cited by the company as making continued production impossible. David Murangari, the head of the Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe said many mines are operating at a loss due to forex seizures by the government and will soon shut down. The shutting down of Zim's agricultural exporters is affecting the entire economy.

If Zim's economy falls it will have farther to fall than the average African country. Zim's per capita GNP is $2,500 a year while the average for sub-Saharan Africa outside of South Africa is $1,000. Agricultural exports have been key to Zim's relative success. From 1979 to 1999 agriculture increased by 3.45% a year while manufacturing increased by only 1.8% a year. The more recent numbers are even more in the favor of agriculture. During the 1990's manufacturing actually shrank by 1.2% a year while agriculture grew by 4.1% a year.

Not only has agriculture been a long time mainstay for the country, but it is one of its most dynamic industries. Before the recent troubles Zim's white farmers were making a big push into Europe's off-season flower market. Zim's position south of the equator allows them to grow flowers while Europe is covered in snow. From 1991 to 1998 the cut flower industry(horticulture) grew by 180%. All of this occurred on white owned farms. Robert Mugabe mentioned this success in his 20th anniversary of independence speech when he bragged that, "Phenomenal growth has been registered in the crops of maize, cotton, tobacco and horticulture." In the coming years we must look at the economic figures coming out of Zim and remember that the white owned farms were rapidly increasing in value and moving out into new areas such as horticulture. To simply maintain current levels is not to replicate what the white farmers were doing.

I believe the white farmers of Zimbabwe should be left unmolested. I do not try to hide this, but I want to be fair to the opposite point of view. After the whites have been expelled it will take several years for the new owners to settle in. Since the large properties of the white farm owners are going to be split up into smaller lots it will take some time for new roads and barns and such to be built for these smaller lots. I understand that it will take some time for the new owners to be ready to succeed. I want to be fair and give them this time before any judgment is made. However, part of being fair is making that judgment. Eventually Zimbabwe will have to show that expelling the whites was to the benefit of all.

References for Data | Small PDF of World Bank Stats on Zim | Large PDF of IMF Stats on Zim

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